World Economics and Politics

No.1，2007

Abstracts

(1) China’s Role in Contemporary Times / Wang Yizhou

(7) The DPRK Nuclear Test according to International Law / Zeng Lingliang

The unlawfulness of the DPRK nuclear test and the lawfulness of the UN Security Council’s Resolution 1718 (2006) according to international law have common legal sources. Although there have been several specialized treaties prohibiting nuclear tests and supporting the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, these special laws can hardly be used to prove the unlawfulness of the DPRK nuclear test. Nor can the Joint Statement by the Six Parties prove the unlawfulness of the DPRK nuclear test in accordance with the standards of “publicity” and “intention” established by the ICJ. In contrast, the UN Charter as a general international law may be the most forceful legal evidence to justify the illegality of the DPRK nuclear test. The primary purpose of “maintenance of international peace and security” and the principle of “prohibition of armed threats or use of armed forces” in the UN Charter can be presumed to include the prohibition of nuclear tests. Therefore, the DPRK nuclear test violates not only DPRK’s obligations under the Charter as a UN member-state, but also the provision of “prohibition of armed threats or use of armed forces” which has become a general international customary rule bearing the character of jus cogens.

(14) The Awakening, Struggle and Self-strengthening of a Continent: An Outline of the Study of African International Relations Theories in the Twentieth Century / Liu Hong， wuXiao Yuhua and Liang Yijian

The twentieth century was a century when the African continent struggled strenuously for a modern revival. In this process, African nationalist political leaders, thinkers, and intellectuals, using their own methods, were involved in the defining of Africa’s position in the world system and in the inquiry into the relations between Africa and other peoples and countries of the world. This paper deals with the historical conditions behind the birth of African theories of international relations and its core topics, focusing on the early form of Pan-Africanism, the border issues and theories of nation-state building in the 1960s and 1970s, and the recent development of contemporary African international relations theories, followed by an introduction to Africa’s indigenous institutions for research on international relations. It is fair to say that the evolution of African theories of international relations in the twentieth century was also a process of awakening and revival of the African continent, a process of Africa’s understanding of and search for its own identity, rights, and values.

(23) Robert W. Cox and the Post-modernists: Similarities and Differences / Li Bin

Both Robert W. Cox and the theories of the post-modernists fall into the category of critical IR theory. They both aim to challenge the positivist methodology of Western mainstream IR theories, to oppose the practice of the given concepts in those theories, and to seek human emancipation. However, they are dramatically different in terms of their theoretical bases: the Cox theory is based on historical materialism, while post-modernism is based on the linguistic philosophy of the French post-modernists; Cox attempts to reconstruct the world order on the basis of historical materialism, whereas the post-modernists oppose any effort to reconstruct the world and they argue that, rather than freedom, such an effort will only bring about a new autocracy and constraints.

(30) The Historical Sociology Approach of Raymond Aron / Wang Jun

Raymond Aron, a famous French theorist in different disciplines, is well known for his historical sociological approach in building IR theories. As an anti-positive approach, this approach is used by Aron to explain the core issue of international relations, peace and war. With a series of conceptual designs, levels of analysis, and variables, such an approach is employed due to Aron’s distinctive correlation of historical philosophy and IR theory. The author analyzes the complicated connotations of the historical sociological approach from the perspective of epistemology and the reasons why this approach cannot be applied to other IR studies.

(38) Cognitive-psychology, Bureaucratic-organization, and Agenda-politics: Construction and Development of Three Explanatory Approaches to Crisis Decision-making / Zhong Kaibin

This article explores the most significant advances in the field of crisis decision-making in the past decades, and categorizes them into three broad explanatory theories derived from the relevant interdisciplinary literature —— cognitive-psychology, bureaucratic-organization, and agenda-politics. The article argues that the three broad approaches are complementary, as they all help to explain the broad pattern of individual and collective problem avoidance and policy failure. The author reviews the construction and development process of crisis decision-making research in Western societies, pointing out that the three explanatory “cuts” are limited in studies of crisis decision-making in non-Western societies and may not be theoretically applicable to an analysis of the Chinese case. Finally, the author concludes that it is imperative that a more generic and generalizable approach be built that can encompass a variety of political systems and can be applied to analyzing cases involving different types of adversaries.

(46) Analysis of the “Congressional China Caucus” in the U.S. House of Representatives / Sun Zhe， Zhao Guojun

The House of Representatives in the U.S. Congress has established a “China Caucus” in response to China’s rise. By examining the reasons why this caucus was formed, its functions, and its members, we can understand Congressional perceptions and policy orientations toward China. Furthermore, by comparing this caucus with the “U.S.-China Working Group” in the House, we can also analyze the internal debates inside Congress on issues related to China’s rise. This paper argues that since its inception, the “China Caucus” has been a loosely organized institution but its members have complicated backgrounds. So far it has emphasized the “uncertainty” of U.S.-China relations, i.e., China can become either a friend or an enemy of the United States. Therefore, its policy advice is tilted toward proposing a “hedging” strategy--a policy of “containment” for the United States.  Currently, most members of Congress are worried about the Chinese “threat,” so the caucus pays more attention to “how to contain” rather than “how to cooperate” with China. This pattern of behavior contradicts the original intention, i.e., to “understand China correctly,” of the caucus when it was founded.

(54) The Demand-Supply Balance in International Mediation: A Case Study of Mediating the Ethiopian-Eritrean Conflict (1998～2000) / Zhang Chun

The increase in international crises calls for more effective international mediation. However, the ratio of cases of successful international mediation has been very low. The major reason for this lies in the improper deployment of the demand and supply of international mediation resources. On the supply side, a potential mediator may not be willing to mediate due to concerns of self-interest. On the demand side, a potential mediator with the greatest capability to mediate may not necessarily be accepted by all the parties in the conflict. It is just such an imbalance that has resulted in the current embarrassing situation of international mediation. The international mediation in the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict from 1998 to 2000 is a prime example.   Perhaps the most effective solution to this problem is to explore and strengthen the mediation capabilities of international organizations because they have three advantages, including a stronger capability and will, greater legitimacy, and the ability to form a consensus.

(61) Domestic Institutions and International Economic Cooperation / Qu Bo

Since the 1990s, an important issue on the International Political Economy (IPE) research agenda has been to deal with the relations between domestic institutions and international economic cooperation. Domestic institutions can help to overcome the common problem—the defection problem--of international cooperation to increase the credibility of commitment through delegation, checks and balances, and transparency. At the same time, domestic institutions can also transform the costs and benefits of collective action by domestic interest groups and balance domestic coalitions. In general, a proper domestic institutional design can promote international economic cooperation.

(69) A Multiple Equilibrium Model with Anticipation: Market Structure and Power Structure——The Political Economy of International Oil Price Fluctuations / Guan Qingyou

The author attempts to use an improved Multiple Equilibrium Model to explore the relations between power structures and the market and the reasons for international oil price fluctuations. The international market is a power-dominated system of rules. The fluctuation in oil prices is not only the result of supply and demand, but also the result of the political arrangements of the oil interests among the big powers. It reflects both the demand and supply structure of the international market and the power structure of international relations. The intervemtopm of power into the markets accelerates the conflicts between supply and demand, enlarges the “risk premium” of oil prices, and may even lead to an oil crisis or an energy panic. The factor of anticipation can reflect the market and power structures of the international oil market. The market structure is decided by the power structure. Due to the power interventions, there are excess and speculative demands on the international markets, which cause the oil price fluctuation to deviate from normal supply and demand relations and result in a prolongation of the cycle of oil price fluctuations.

(75) Trade Liberalization in East Asia: The Welfare Effect and Future Prospects / Li Zhongmin

The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in East Asia is regarded as an important step in global trade liberalization. However, after the agreement reached between China and ASEAN, Japan, and Singapore, the outcome appears to be limited. The author argues a possible reason for this is that the domestic industries of the member countries will be hurt by the FTA in East Asia, despite an improvement in general welfare. The author analyzes the position of China in the East Asian FTA and proposes a strategy based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). According to the results of a simulation, China will increasingly become the center of the trade liberalization process in East Asia. Therefore, the best option for China is to transfer the advantages of market accommodation into real bargaining power and to make the FTA favorable to China. In addition, China must improve the competitiveness of its domestic manufacturing industries to minimize the negative effects of the East Asian FTA.

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